Houston Economics Club Speaker Series: Dr. Harvey Rosenblum
On Thursday, February 18th, we attended a luncheon/speaker series hosted by the Houston Economics Club, the local chapter of the National Association of Business Economics. The topic was The Economic Outlook for 2010. The speaker for the event was Dr. Harvey Rosenblum, Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. During his discussion, Dr. Rosenblum touched on subjects such as the expected growth in GDP for 2010, which is predicted to be between 2-3%. However, Dr. Rosenblum noted that sans the recession actual GPD growth would have likely been 5-6% . In the past 25 years of U.S. economic growth, or the “great moderation”, there were only 16 months denoting recession.
In a survey recently completed, 40% of industries noted that the were adding workers versus 80% that were shedding workers the previous year. Temporary unemployment is turning positive; however, businesses have found new ways to optimize production with less aggregate labor thus some will no longer require the same level of employment as in prior years.
Dr. Rosenblum also noted that commercial real estate is still an impending negative set of issues and he expects that commercial real estate will remain hindered through 2012.
Americans lost at least $18 trillion of net worth during this recession, or a minimum of 2 years of income. However on a positive note (much to the benefit of commercial banks), the savings rate has increased to 4.6% and Dr. Rosenblum expects the savings rate to stablize between 4 – 5%.
Dr. Rosenblum also noted that the Fed has no real prior experience in removing monetary stimulus of this magnitude or diversity. Methods regarding reduction of the Fed’s historic level balance sheet are currently being reviewed and discussed at the highest levels. This will prove to be a very speculative and delicate operation which will have far reaching implications.
We’ll keep you posted.
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Katherine E Avery has experience supporting consulting services for pension fund and institutional investment clients. Ms. Avery has experience in underwriting and consulting for over $2.5 billion in commercial real estate assets.
